If I Picked The Winners

Well, the Oscars are now a few days away so here are my predictions along with who I would pick to win, nominated or not. And yes, the title of this post is an homage to the great Siskel & Ebert Oscar special If We Picked The Winners that I used to watch religiously every year.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Richard Jenkins in The Visitor
Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn in Milk
Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler

Prediction: Mickey Rourke
Who Should Win: Mickey Rourke

Firstly, kudos to the Academy for recognizing Richard Jenkins for his graceful work in The Visitor. It's great to see such a consistent character actor get recognized, especially for a film without a megabucks marketing campaign behind it. However, no other performance this year was as deeply felt or wrenchingly moving as Rourke’s turn as a wrestler on his last legs. With his career revitalizing turn, Rourke proves there are few actors working today who can exude such raw masculinity and aching vulnerability at the same time, the way he does here. Hopefully he’ll stay clean, make some smart choices and finally live up to the promise that has only been hinted at for much of his career.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Josh Brolin in Milk
Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road

Prediction: Heath Ledger
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger
Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Bill Irwin in Rachel Getting Married

There is no doubt that Heath Ledger’s incarnation of the gleefully psychotic Joker was the performance of the year. However, the Academy should’ve honored Bill Irwin with a nomination for his fantastic work in Rachel Getting Married, instead of rewarding Robert Downey Jr. for his funny, if somewhat one-dimensional turn in the otherwise tepid Tropic Thunder.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie in Changeling
Melissa Leo in Frozen River
Meryl Streep in Doubt
Kate Winslet in The Reader

Prediction: Kate Winslet
Who Should Win: Meryl Streep

You’ve got to hand it to Harvey Weinstein. The man can Oscar campaign like no one else, and what he has done with the critically shrugged Holocaust melodrama The Reader is remarkable. The biggest beneficiary has been Kate Winslet who has won a surprising number of nominations for her role in the film. I haven’t seen the film, but I have no doubt Winslet is fine in it, but really, for a film that critics have been holding at arms length, it’s been purely positioning and glad handing that have gotten the film this far. Streep, who has been nominated for an Oscar a staggering fifteen times and won twice, is loved by the Academy but taken for granted for exactly the kind of work she does in Doubt. There is a pivotal moment in the final minutes of Doubt in which Streep does the kind of acting that is a shocking reminder of just how great she can be. What she does with her character in those moments is so perfectly executed, it completely shapes the outcome of the entire film, and is a reminder of why she is one of the greatest actresses’ of her generation.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Amy Adams in Doubt
Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis in Doubt
Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler

Prediction: Penelope Cruz
Who Should Win: Penelope Cruz

Penelope Cruz only enters Vicky Cristina Barcelona about halfway through the film, but when she does, she’s a tornado of fiery emotion. Playing Javier Bardem’s volatile ex-wife, it’s Cruz who brings Woody Allen’s vision full circle with a performance that edges her character with a flinty vulnerability. Yes, it’s a showy performance, but it’s honest and is crucial to holding the thematic arc of the film together.

Achievement in cinematography

Tom Stern for Changeling
Claudio Miranda for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wally Pfister for The Dark Knight
Chris Menges and Roger Deakins for The Reader
Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Wally Pfister
Who Should Win: Javier Aguirresarobe for Vicky Cristina Barcelona

There is no doubt that Wally Pfister’s work on The Dark Knight was nothing short of breathtaking. Using Chicago as a stand-in for Gotham City, Pfister created some truly dazzling scenes, particularly during the IMAX sequences that completely brought a new angle to metropolitan based crime dramas. However, nothing affected me as greatly this year as Javier Aguirresrobe’s work on Vicky Cristina Barcelona. His honey colored scenes of Barcelona and rural towns were awe-inspiring, dreamlike and utterly gorgeous, making it quite understandable to see how the two transplanted Americans could so easily be charmed by the Spanish countryside.

Achievement in directing

David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant for Milk
Stephen Daldry for The Reader
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Danny Boyle
Who Should Win: Darren Aronofsky for The Wrestler

No other director this year made such a stylistic 180 as Darren Aronofsky. Usually known for his highly visual, individual work, The Wrestler, found Aronofsky borrowing a page from the Dardennes brothers and going for a simple handheld, observational style. The result allowed Rourke’s extraordinary performance to really shine, as well as create a remarkably intimate connection between the audience and the characters. With The Wrestler, Aronofsky reveals himself as an evolving, maturing director.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

Alexandre Desplat for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard for Defiance
Danny Elfman for Milk
A.R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman for WALL-E

Prediction: Alexandre Desplat
Who Should Win: Hans Zimmer and James Newton Howard for The Dark Knight

Though I think Alexandre Desplat is one of the best contemporary film composers working today, his score The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button is not his best stuff. On the other hand, James Newton Howard has had some good pieces here and there (his work on Signs is a stand out for me), but he truly surprised me with the collaborative compositions put together with Hans Zimmer for The Dark Knight. I can’t recall the last time a mainstream, blockbuster film so readily made use of something so avant garde as “A Little Push” for a character signal. However, that one brief piece of music used for the Joker added a dimension of unease to Ledger’s already magnetically terrifying performance. It’s no surprise that after the Academy’s embarrassing infighting regarding the duo’s eligibility for Oscar consideration that they ultimately weren’t nominated, but they should be recognized for daring to push mainstream film composition in interesting new directions.

Best motion picture of the year

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

No surprise here. Vicky Cristina Barcelona was my favorite film of last year, and if it were up to me I’d give it an Oscar too. But something tells me that Woody Allen, who is by choice not an Academy member and has stated having no interest in the awards, is happy to continue working without being bothered by the momentary glam and glitz of Hollywood’s biggest night.